Book Review: Breakneck by Dan Wang

China is ruled by engineers. They apply this to everything - from building cities & electric cars to solving human problems. Dropping fertility rates mean adult diapers outsell baby diapers.

Guizhao’s per capita income matches Botswana, BUT...

Guizhou is China’s fourth-poorest province, tucked into China’s mountainous southwest. As recently as 2010, only half of Guizhou’s children attended high school—the lowest rate in the country.

When the Dan Wang cycled through Guizhou’s mountains in 2021, he witnessed something astonishing. This province—with per capita income matching Botswana—now has:

• 45 of the world’s 100 highest bridges

• 11 airports, with 3 more under construction

• 5,000 miles of expressways (ranked fourth among all Chinese provinces)

• 1,000 miles of high-speed rail

• The world’s largest radio telescope

The Engineering Mindset Applied to Everything

By 2002, all nine members of the Politburo Standing Committee—the apex of Communist Party power—had trained as engineers. One studied hydraulic engineering and spent a decade building dams. Others graduated from the Beijing Steel and Iron Institute, the Harbin Institute of Technology, with degrees in electron-tube engineering and thermal engineering. Everything is precise and well defined.

• Population problem? Implement the one-child policy.

• Virus spreading? Pursue zero-Covid.

• Economy needs direction? The Five-Year Plans specify the exact kilometers of rail, exact locations of power plants, exact sectors to develop. It is so precise as to say, “We will add 3,000 kilometers of urban rail transit” and names the exact highway sections to be built.

Engineering mind applied to human problems

The one-child policy was fiercely implemented. The result is a human problem that defies engineering logic. Here are four data points that will need to be addressed:

• Fertility rate of 1.0 children per lifetime (2.1 needed for stability)

• 15 million births in 2019, fell to 9 million by 2023 6 million marriages in 2024 (half the level of a decade ago)

• Maternity wards shutting down

• Adult diapers expected to outsell baby diapers

Can this engineering prowess and momentum survive the demographic collapse, the debt burdens, and the fortress mentality?

The bridges in Guizhou just stand there, arching over gorges, built by a state that treats people as numbers but somehow still manages to change their lives.

Listen to this interview with Dan Wang